COVID-19 pandemic has rapidly spread worldwide, and Spain has suffered one of the largest nationwide bursts, particularly in the highly populated areas of Madrid and Barcelona - two of the five largest conurbations in Europe.
In the article COVID-19 effective reproduction number dropped during Spain's nationwide dropdown, then spiked at lower-incidence regions (for which the journal offers now a 50 days' free access), Luis Santamaría and Joaquín Hortal used segmented regression analyses to identify shifts in the evolution of the effective reproduction number (Rt) reported for 16 Spanish administrative regions - qand associated the observed breaking points with a timeline of key containment measures taken by national and regional governments, applying time lags for the time from contagion to case detection.
Results show an early decrease of Rt that preceded the nationwide lockdown; a generalized, sharp decrease in Rt associated with such lockdown; a low impact of the strengthened lockdown, with a flattening of Rt evolution in high-incidence regions, and even increases in Rt at low-incidence regions; and an increase in Rt associated to the relaxation of the lockdown measures in ten regions.
These results evidence the importance of generalized lockdown measures to contain COVID-19 spread, and the limited effect of the subsequent application of a stricter lockdown (restrictions to all non-essential economic activities). Most importantly, they highlight the importance of maintaining strong social distancing measures and strengthening public health control during lockdown de-escalation.
Failing to fulfill these requirements has thrown Spain into a new cycle of widespread, uncontrolled infections - particularly at Madrid. This article aimed therefore to be one of the numerous contributions to lay down a robust sicentific base for mor efficient policies to dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic.
